OOA Advocacy Alert: The Rotunda Review from Capitol Consulting

Capitol Consulting Group, Inc. 
Rotunda Review
November 19th, 2024

Speakership Shakeup: Stephens Out, Barhorst In As Wednesday Caucus Vote Approaches

The turbulent contest for Speaker of the Ohio House of Representatives saw a significant plot twist yesterday as House Speaker Jason Stephens (R-Kitts Hill) announced he would not seek another term. This announcement came after rumors began circulating over the weekend that State Representative Tim Barhorst (R-Fort Loramie) was planning to jump into the race. Before today, the race for Speaker featured Stephens, Senate President Matt Huffman (R-Lima), who is returning to the House due to term limits, and State Representative Ron Ferguson (R-Wintersville). Huffman was largely viewed as the frontrunner, though none of the three candidates had the 50 votes needed to be elected Speaker.

Stephens came to power in early 2023 by courting votes from the Democratic Caucus to bolster his lead after failing to secure the majority of votes from the Republican Caucus. In the end, Stephens received 22 Republican votes and 32 Democratic votes to secure his gavel; he defeated State Representative Derek Merrin (R-Monclova), who did receive a majority of the Republican caucus vote. Stephens's time as Speaker was marred in controversy after several House Republicans refused to work with him and openly challenged the Speaker for control of caucus campaign resources. Stephens and the ‘Blue 22’ Republicans who backed him faced censure from the Ohio Republican Party and several primary challenges; four Stephens allies lost their Primaries earlier this year. Huffman has been openly pursuing the Speakership and was believed to have the most committed votes of the three candidates.

Negotiations have been quietly taking place since Election Day between surrogates for Ferguson and Stephens to identify a viable alternative to Huffman. Stephens faced a challenging path to victory as he would again need Democratic votes to remain Speaker, while Ferguson remained in a distant third in the race. Rep. Ferguson has already said he will not run and instead back Barhorst; several outside groups and individuals, including Ohio Advocates for Medical Freedom, Conservative Commentator Jack Windsor, former Congressional Candidate JR Majewski, and Householder Attorney Scott Pullins have all joined Ferguson in backing Barhorst. Stephens and many of his allies are also expected to support Barhorst in tomorrow’s closed-door caucus vote. Historically, whoever receives the majority vote in the caucus deliberation would be backed by the Republican delegation on the floor vote in January. However, Stephens and former Speaker Larry Householder (R-Glenford) have bucked that trend in recent years.

A Barhorst victory would represent the merger of the remnants of Stephens and the ‘Blue 22’ and some of the chamber’s most conservative members. He likely has between 35 and 40 committed votes, which would secure a majority of the incoming 65-member majority. This is short of the 50 votes needed to become Speaker. However, should he secure the majority of Republican support, he could more easily court Democratic votes and not face the same scrutiny that Stephens endured over the past two years. It is unclear what Huffman will do should he fail to win the majority. However, he and his inner circle have pressured social media by announcing endorsements from Ohio Congressmen Jim Jordan and Warren Davidson. Huffman is also seeking support from the Ohio Legislative Black Caucus, though there are too few members to secure 50 House votes given the anticipated whip count.

A lot can and is likely to happen between now and Wednesday evening, when the House Majority Caucus will meet for a closed-door vote. Only those members who will be part of the 136th General Assembly can vote, though it will be a secret ballot. The official floor vote will not occur until January 7th, when the new session commences. Huffman still controls the Ohio Senate and is a close ally of incoming Senate President Robert McColley (R-Napoleon), so he can pressure House members. Additional endorsements or influence from Trump allies and/or the Ohio Republican Party could further tip the scales.

Statehouse News Bureau: Freshman Rep. Tim Barhorst Jumps Into Race for Ohio Speaker

Dayton Daily News: Ohio House Speaker Drops Bid Days Before Unofficial Vote

With Vance Departing for Naval Observatory, DeWine Weights Options for Appointment

With U.S. Senator JD Vance set to become Vice President, Ohio Governor Mike DeWine must tap a replacement for his unexpired term. Under Ohio law, the Governor would select an appointee to take office until a Special Election could be held in 2026. Whoever prevails in that race would still need to run for reelection in 2028. Given recent election results, it is likely that this seat will remain in Republican hands. However, several candidates are expected to mount a primary challenge in 2026, no matter who DeWine taps. Democrats will be eager to try and exploit historical midterm election trends that favor the party out of power; U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D) and former Congressman and Senate Candidate Tim Ryan are both said to be considering a 2026 bid.

DeWine has said privately that he would like to make some history with his appointment by tapping a woman for the Senate. Ohio has never had a female U.S. Senator, and DeWine has a track record of elevating women in his Administration. Two names on the shortlist are former Ohio Republican Party Chairwoman Jane Timken and State Senator Theresea Gavarone (R-Bowling Green). Timken married into the wealthy, Canton-area Timken family and was endorsed by Trump when she challenged Matt Borges for ORP Chair in 2017; Borges was an ally of former Governor John Kasich. Timken previously ran for Senate in the 2022 GOP Primary and would be the preferred choice for Trump world. Sen. Gavarone was already considering a run for Ohio Secretary of State and previously ran unsuccessfully in the 9th Congressional District GOP Primary in 2022. Of the two, Timken is the clear frontrunner.

Central Ohio Congressman Mike Carey is also on DeWine’s shortlist. Unlike other potential appointees, Carey enjoys connections to the Trump Camp and more traditional establishment Republicans like DeWine. I should also note that Attorney, Fox News Contributor, and former Kasich Administration staffer Mehek Cooke have been mentioned as potential candidates. Cooke previously lost a statehouse bid and has no prior elected experience; her name is mainly being floated by Conservative media personalities who frequently have her as a guest on their programs. Cooke does reside in the 15th Congressional District, and her longshot pursuit of the Senate appointment could be a play at running for that seat should Carey be appointed to the Senate by DeWine.

Senator Vance will also play an essential role in deciding his successor. One of his closest strategists is former Kasich senior advisor Jai Chabria, who works for MAD Global Strategy. Chabria works closely with Brenton Temple, who most recently ran DeWine’s successful 2022 reelection campaign. Vance also enjoys a close relationship with Ohio Republican Party Chairman Alex Triantafilou, the longtime Chairman of the Hamilton County Republican Party, Vance’s current county of residence. These backchannels will be influential as DeWine weighs his options.

DeWine’s pick could directly impact the race for Ohio Governor in 2026 as some of the potential Senate appointees are also in the mix for the Republican Gubernatorial Primary. Former GOP Presidential Candidate Vivek Ramaswamy recently accepted a position with the Trump Administration as the Co-Director of the newly created Department of Government Efficiency. Ramaswamy has said publicly that he does not want the Senate Appointment in light of his role in DC. However, he is still very much exploring a run for Governor. Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost also indicated he would not accept the appointment as he is planning a Gubernatorial bid. Lt. Governor Jon Husted, considered the early frontrunner for the 2026 Gubernatorial contest, has not ruled out an appointment with the US Senate but is also not actively pursuing the seat.

Three other names under consideration by DeWine are State Treasurer Robert Sprague, who is also maneuvering for a Gubernatorial bid, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose, and State Senator Matt Dolan (R-Chagrin Falls). Sen. Dolan ran in the GOP Senate Primaries in 2022 and 2024 and was endorsed by DeWine on both occasions; Dolan has also charted a more moderate path and even received some public condemnation from Trump after his 2022 bid. Dolan is undoubtedly provocative and would be seen as DeWine snubbing Trump and his allies. DeWine is also said to be interested in an Ambassadorship, which could be a bargaining chip for President Trump. Some individuals have speculated that DeWine might appoint himself. However, the Governor has dismissed this possibility. Shortly after Election Day, Vance met with DeWine at the Governor’s Residence, and we do not expect a decision on an appointee until after the Election.

Columbus Dispatch: Who Will Replace HD Vance in U.S. Senate? Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine Mulling Pick

Cleveland.com / Plain Dealer: Who Will Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine Pick to Fill Vance Senate Seat?

 
Spotlight on Buckeye State

The last Vice President from Ohio was Charles Dawes, who served under President Calvin Coolidge from 1925 to 1929. Dawes was born in 1865 in Marietta, Ohio. JD Vance will only be the third Ohioan to serve as vice president (the other being Teddy Roosevelt Veep Charles Fairbanks). Interestingly, no Ohioans have served as both Vice President and President.

Rotunda Review is a periodic newsletter prepared by Capitol Consulting Group. If you would like additional information, please contact Danny Hurley (dhurley@capitol-consulting.net). 

Daniel Hurley
Vice President
Capitol Consulting Group, Inc.